MONTHLY HIGHLIGHT - Aug 2026 Asia’s Blue Ocean in the Americas
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Dear friends, I’ve just spent ten days in Guatemala — Guatemala City, Lake Atitlán, and Antigua for the Volcano Summit, where I was almost certainly the only Asian among 2,000 family principals and founders from more than ten countries. I arrived knowing very little and left convinced it is one of the most overlooked markets for Asian capital anywhere. Six observations: 1. The Korea connection is already there — we just don’t know it. The airport signage is Spanish, English and Korean. Roughly 6,000 Koreans live in Guatemala, the largest community in Central America, most running textile plants for American brands since the 1990s. There is a Koreatown on the road to Antigua, and one principal told me a third of his son’s class is Korean. Guatemala ratified its accession to the Korea–Central America FTA last November, and Guatemalan Geisha coffee is finding its way into Korea. Yet every family I met owns Samsung phones and drives Hyundais with zero Korea or Japan in their portfolios — and the vast majority of Asian business owners have never looked at this region. 2. Infrastructure is the bottleneck, and a private-sector opportunity. The Pan-American highway from the capital through Antigua to Lake Atitlán is still a narrow two-lane road; I lost six hours to one overturned truck. The city broke ground on a US$155 million AeroMetro cable car in January, but the business community will tell you the real answer is a subway. Because Guatemala is one of Taiwan’s dozen remaining allies, there is no Belt and Road money here — which leaves roads, power and a privately led US$7 billion Pacific–Atlantic “dry canal” open to Korean, Japanese and Taiwanese contractors and development banks. 3. English at the top; Spanish opens the continent. Every principal I met was US-educated with perfect English; one level down I needed a translator, or my phone’s live AI interpreter for a four-hour conversation with my driver. But one language covers the Americas from Mexico to Patagonia, against ten across ASEAN, and a home market of 18 million forces Guatemalan companies to think regionally from day one. 4. The quetzal is the quiet surprise. One principal called it the most stable currency in the Americas, and the numbers agree: around Q7.6 to the dollar for two decades, inflation under 3%, reserves of US$32.7 billion (21% of GDP), anchored by US$25.5 billion of remittances — a fifth of GDP. Families still hold most of their wealth in dollars through Miami, Panama or Luxembourg, while further down it is a cash economy: one consumer-goods company serves 40,000 mom-and-pop stores at US$17 an order, all in cash. 5. Guatemalans are now the ones buying Latin America. “It used to be the Colombians; now it’s the Guatemalans.” Castillo Hermanos paid about US$1.5 billion for SunnyD owner Harvest Hill, CMI bought Del Real Foods in the US, and Grupo Solid sells paint in ten countries and acquired in Argentina in May. Groups that learned to be efficient in small, fragmented markets hit it out of the park in big ones — and they run out of Guatemala City, Miami and Mexico City with Panama as the offshore hub. A Guatemalan partner is the shortest route into the Spanish-speaking Americas. 6. Korea and Japan are the hedge these families are missing. Latin American portfolios are overwhelmingly US dollar and US equity, and the dollar index fell about 10% in 2025, its worst year in three decades. KOSPI rose 76% that year against the S&P 500's 17%, and is up roughly 65% again in 2026 even after a sharp pullback from its June high; the Nikkei is up about 50% year to date, and the won is at a 14-month high against the dollar. Colombian and Brazilian stocks have also rallied, but that is exposure these families already have. What they lack is the other side of the Pacific — governance reform, a semiconductor cycle and strengthening currencies, in markets uncorrelated to Latin American politics. The catch is distance: 24 hours in, 31 hours back, and no non-stop between Asia and Central America. That disconnection is exactly why the opportunity exists — and why a few Guatemalan families will be joining us at the Pine Asia Summit in Tokyo, 11–13 November. If you want to understand this region — or are a Latin American family looking for your first exposure to Korea and Japan — write to me at ceo.office@pinevp.com. Warm regards, Hyuktae Kwon Founder & CEO, Pine Capital Management |
Hyuk-Tae Kwon
Founder and CEO
Portfolio Spotlight
Brewing Through Change: Leon Foo on the Future of Coffee and Tea
by Investment Manager Joel Kam
Against a backdrop of climate volatility, rising input costs, supply chain uncertainty and shifting consumer preferences, the global coffee industry is navigating a period of meaningful change. We spoke with Leon Foo, Founder of Morning Coffee, one of Pine Venture Partners’ portfolio companies, to get his perspective on how these trends are affecting the coffee market, the growing popularity of alternatives such as matcha, and how technology and personalisation could shape the future of coffee and tea.
1. With everything happening around the world, how has the world of coffee been affected?
Coffee has probably never faced more pressure than it does today. Climate change is affecting harvests, producing countries are seeing rising labour costs, and global supply chains remain unpredictable. All of this ultimately impacts both quality and price.
At the same time, consumer expectations continue to rise. People want better coffee, more transparency and more variety than ever before.
I actually think these challenges are pushing the industry in a positive direction. Roasters are becoming more intentional about sourcing, producers are experimenting with new processing methods, and technology is helping preserve quality from farm to cup. The industry is evolving because it has to.
2. Recently, we've seen an explosion of shops offering more tea, especially matcha, in Singapore. What trends is Morning seeing on the ground, and how are you responding to changing consumer behaviour?
Consumers today aren't choosing between coffee or tea. They're simply looking for a better beverage experience.
Matcha's growth reflects a broader trend: people are becoming more curious about quality, origin and craftsmanship, regardless of whether it's coffee or tea.
That's something we're excited about. Morning has always been about helping people discover exceptional drinks, so expanding into tea feels like a natural evolution rather than a change in direction. We think the future isn't coffee versus tea. It's creating a platform where people can explore both with the same level of quality and care.
3. Looking ahead, what do you think the future of coffee and tea will look like, and what are you most excited about?
I think the next chapter is going to be far more personal.
For years, the industry focused on making better products. Going forward, the challenge is helping people find the products they'll personally enjoy.
Technology will play a much bigger role in understanding taste, recommending coffees and teas based on individual preferences, and making it easier to explore new flavours with confidence.
What excites me most is that we're moving away from telling people what's "good" and towards helping each person discover what's good for them. That's a much more interesting future.
At Pine, we are always interested to continue the conversation with readers who have perspectives on the evolving coffee and beverage landscape. If you would like to exchange views with the Pine team, or if you are interested in connecting with Leon to discuss these trends further, please feel free to reach out to us and we would be happy to facilitate an introduction.
A Little More Shiny, A Little Less Scary
by Investment Director Larry Lau
In a short span of weeks or months, many things can change, especially in the financial markets.
Gold now looks a little more shiny on a tactical basis, while semiconductors look a little less scary following July’s sharp sell-off and subsequent repositioning in investors’ portfolios.
Both reflect how changes in market structure, positioning and price action can alter the risk-reward dynamics, and how having a sound investment process can help investors truly be long-term investors.
Our view on gold has evolved alongside the evidence within the context of our investment process. In February, we recommended buying the dips while market structure remained supportive. In our early May newsletter, “Gold has lost its shine…or was it never that shiny to begin with?”, we questioned the “common knowledge” surrounding gold’s role as a strategic portfolio allocation.
That argument remains intact. With gold’s market structure having turned negative on 19 March, we recommended that “strength should be used to trim existing allocations”. Gold subsequently fell more than 17% from its 12 May high to 30 June.
On 3 August, we wrote: “Regarding Gold, we view the consolidation pattern since late June as highly constructive.” Gold subsequently broke out of its six-week consolidation base on 5 August. On 19 August, its market structure turned positive by our definition, providing further confirmation of the improving setup.
After reaching its post-breakout high on 25 August, gold pulled back ~9% into the 2 September low. We view this as an opportunity to accumulate rather than evidence that the rally is over. Gold trades at ~$4,486 as I write. At this level, we believe an allocation equivalent to ~50% of an investor’s intended maximum gold exposure is warranted. Further weakness should be used to accumulate, provided market structure remains positive.
A pullback within positive market structure offers a compelling risk-reward opportunity. This is exactly what our investment process is designed to do: mitigate drawdown risk when market structure turns negative and remain patient until it flips back to positive before committing meaningful capital.
This adaptive discipline can help investors avoid both passive complacency and emotional capitulation. We believe it also improves our ability to capture alpha across asset classes and securities over a full market cycle.
A quick note on semiconductors. Since the start of July, we have warned that “widening dispersion and rising volatility are signs of a maturing, late-stage rally”. A meaningful reset has since occurred.
SMH fell almost 25% from its high into the 29 July low and remains 17.1% below its 22 June high. BofA’s FMS showed that the share of respondents identifying long semiconductors as the most crowded trade fell from 82% to 53% in one month. To be clear, the group is not under-owned, but the rapid unwind suggests much of the weak positioning has already been flushed out.
Across the broader AI universe of ~150 stocks that we monitor, 77% remained in negative market structure as of 31 August. To put this in context, the figure reached 81.1% during the 29 July low. The improvement has been modest but such depressed breadth can be viewed as a contrarian indicator.
We are not bullish yet. However, we are encouraged that the sector is consolidating constructively rather than extending lower, potentially forming a base for the next move up. Time will tell whether we get a classic consolidation breakout opportunity, but as it stands, investors have clearly moved from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic.
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